NDC Flagbearer Race: Current Dynamics and Delegate Sentiment

1. Introduction

This report presents findings from a nationwide survey of constituency executives of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), aimed at assessing current dynamics in the party’s 2028 flagbearer race. Conducted across all 276 constituencies, the study provides a timely snapshot of support levels, voting intentions, perceptions of candidate competitiveness, and the key factors shaping leadership preferences within the party.

The results offer valuable insight into an increasingly competitive and evolving contest, highlighting both the leading contenders and the broader considerations influencing decision-making among party actors at the grassroots level.

2. Methodology

Study Design and Sampling Approach

This study was designed to capture the perspectives of party actors at the constituency level across Ghana. The target population comprised constituency executives of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) across all 276 constituencies.

A nationwide sampling approach was adopted, ensuring that all constituencies had an equal opportunity for representation in the study. This approach was intended to provide a broad and geographically inclusive view of internal party sentiment.

Data Collection

Data collection was conducted over a three-day period (April 17–19, 2026) using a structured survey instrument. The survey was administered through bulk SMS distribution, allowing respondents to access and complete the questionnaire remotely.

This method enabled rapid deployment across all constituencies, standardized delivery of the survey instrument, and efficient collection of responses within a short timeframe.

Participation and Response

Participation in the survey was entirely voluntary, with no incentives provided. Respondents participated at their discretion, and no coercion was applied at any stage of the process.

At the close of data collection, a total of 2,408 valid responses were received and included in the analysis.

Representativeness and Coverage

The study ensured national coverage across all constituencies, with each constituency given an equal opportunity to participate. While responses were voluntary, the broad geographic spread enhances the diversity and inclusiveness of the dataset.

Limitations

As with all voluntary response surveys, the findings may reflect self-selection bias, where individuals who chose to respond may differ systematically from those who did not.

Additionally, the use of SMS-based data collection may limit participation to respondents with access to mobile devices and familiarity with digital tools.

Despite these limitations, the relatively large sample size and nationwide reach provide a useful and credible snapshot of prevailing views among constituency-level actors.

3. Key Findings

3.1 Support Base: A Split at the Top

Current support levels show a near-even division between the two leading candidates:

• Hon. Johnson Asiedu Nketia leads with 31.9%
• Hon. Julius Debrah follows closely with 30.1%

This narrow margin of less than two percentage points indicates that the race is highly competitive and structurally balanced at the top.

While both candidates have built strong bases, neither has been able to consolidate a dominant coalition. The support landscape is therefore polarized but not settled.

3.2 If Elections Were Held Today: Reinforcing the Deadlock

When respondents were asked who they would vote for if elections were held today, a similar pattern emerged:

• Hon. Johnson Asiedu Nketia: 32.7%
• Hon. Julius Debrah: 30.9%

The consistency between general support and immediate voting intention suggests that voter preferences are firm and well-defined, with little evidence of volatility.

The race remains locked, with both candidates maintaining stable constituencies but failing to expand significantly beyond them. No candidate currently commands a winning majority.

3.3 Closest Opponent Perception: A Competitive Field Beyond the Top Two

Perceptions of the “closest opponent” add another dimension to the analysis:

• Hon. Johnson Asiedu Nketia: 29.1%
• Hon. Cassiel Ato Forson: 27.1%
• Hon. Julius Debrah and Hon. Haruna Iddrisu: approximately 15–16% each

While the race is dominated by two candidates, perceptions of competitiveness extend beyond them. Notably, Hon. Ato Forson emerges as a significant perceived contender despite lower direct support levels.

This suggests that the broader field still holds latent influence over the eventual outcome.

3.4 Drivers of Voter Choice: Competence and Unity Over Policy

Voter preferences are primarily shaped by leadership qualities rather than policy specifics. Key factors include:

• Experience and track record: 66.1%
• Personal integrity and honesty: 56.8%
• Ability to unite the party: 46.8%
• Grassroots appeal: 46.5%
• Charisma and public image: 43.9%
• Policy proposals: 27.9%

The electorate is clearly prioritizing credibility, trust, and party cohesion over policy articulation.

This indicates that the contest will likely be decided on perceived competence, moral authority, and the capacity to unify the party base.

3.5 Strategic Implications

A Race Without a Dominant Leader
Neither of the two leading candidates has secured a decisive advantage. Both remain below the threshold required to control the race outright.

Entrenched but Limited Support Bases
Both candidates demonstrate stable but bounded support. The key challenge is expanding beyond their current bases to capture undecided voters and secondary preferences.

Influence of the Wider Field
Perceptions of competitiveness, particularly regarding Hon. Cassiel Ato Forson, indicate that candidates outside the top two retain strategic relevance. Their support bases could prove decisive.

A Leadership Contest Defined by Credibility
Given the dominance of experience, integrity, and unity as decision factors, the race is fundamentally a credibility contest. Candidates who project proven leadership and trustworthiness will be best positioned to break the deadlock.

3.6 Demographic Profile of Respondents

The survey sample is characterized by a highly educated, mid-career population, with strong representation from key urban and politically significant regions.

Age of Respondents

• 35–44 years: 50.5%
• 25–34 years: 21.4%
• 45–54 years: 19.8%
• 18–24 years: 5.8%
• Above 55 years: less than 3%

The relatively low representation of younger respondents means youth-specific preferences may be understated.

Education of Respondents

• Post-secondary (tertiary): 89.4%
• Secondary (SHS): 8.5%
• Middle/JHS/JSS: 1.5%
• Primary or no formal education: less than 1%

This highly educated respondent base places greater emphasis on competence, experience, and credibility, and is more likely to exhibit stable and informed political preferences.

Regional Distribution of Respondents

The sample includes respondents from all regions, with stronger representation from:

• Greater Accra: 15.8%
• Northern Region: 15.0%
• Central Region: 9.8%
• Ashanti Region: 9.1%
• Eastern Region: 7.1%

The distribution supports a national perspective, though it is not perfectly proportional.

4. Conclusion

The NDC flagbearer race remains highly competitive but inconclusive. While Hon. Johnson Asiedu Nketia and Hon. Julius Debrah lead the field, the absence of a commanding margin means the contest remains open.

The eventual outcome will depend not only on maintaining current support levels but also on candidates’ ability to expand their appeal, consolidate broader backing, and align with the leadership qualities valued by voters.

At present, the race should be understood as a balanced contest without a decisive frontrunner.

Contact

For further engagement, please contact:

Dr. Hayford M. Ayerakwa
Director of Research, Administration and Partnerships
Africa Policy Lens (APL)

Email: ayerakwa@gmail.com
Tel: 0243135822